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International Investment Update
Emerging stock markets expert
Michael Keppler continually researches all emerging stock markets and compares
their value based on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to price,
average dividend yield, return on equity and cash flow return. He compares each
emerging stock markets history and from this develops his good value emerging
stock markets strategy.
International
Investment Emerging Recent
Developments & Outlook
Emerging Markets equities continued
their recent rally to reach new all-time highs in both US dollars and euros. The
MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Index advanced 7 % in US dollars and 6.6 %
in euros.
International Investment Year to Date
Year to date, the Emerging Markets
benchmark is up 13.4 % in US dollars. However, due to the 11.9 % year-to-date
rise of the US dollar versus the euro, the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return
Index is up 26.9 % in euros.
International Investment Regions
With regard to the three major
regions, Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) gained 8.6 %, followed by Latin
America (+6.6 %) and Asia (+6.4 %). Year to date, Latin America stood out with
a 18.7 % gain. Asia returned 13.2 % and EMEA came in last with a 10.1 % gain.
All performance numbers are in US dollars unless mentioned otherwise.
Twenty-five markets included
in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose, two declined.
International Investment Leaders
Argentina and Colombia led this
month's winners' list, each gaining 15.5 %. The two other top performing markets
with double-digit monthly returns were Hungary (+12.7 %) and Korea (+12.3 %).
Venezuela (-6.5 %), Pakistan
(-5.2 %) and Sri Lanka (+0.1 %) performed worst in July. Year to date, twenty-five
markets rose, two declined, the same as in the month of July. Egypt is leading
the winners with a return of 106.3 %. Jordan (+64.2 %) and Argentina (+44.4 %)
are in second and third place.
International Investment Losers
Venezuela (-19.9 %), Thailand
(-1.5 %) and South Africa (+0.6 %) performed worst during the first seven months.
The Emerging Markets Top Value
Model Portfolio, which invests according to the Top Value Strategy and assumes
index returns for each national market included in the strategy, gained 5.5 %
in US dollars and 5.2 % in euros, underperforming the benchmark by 1.5 percentage
points during the month.
Year to date, the Emerging Markets
Top Value Model Portfolio gained 19.7 % in US dollars and 34 % in euros, beating
the benchmark by 6.3 percentage points in US dollars and 7.1 in euros.
There
is one change in our performance ratings this month. Colombia is downgraded
to "Neutral" from "Buy" and eliminated from the Top Value
Model Portfolio. Colombia was added to the Top Value Model Portfolio at the
end of July 2004. During the last twelve months,
the MSCI Colombia Index gained 119.3 % beating the MSCI Emerging Markets Index
by a whopping 72.9 %.
According to our analyses which
are based on current index levels, Colombia no longer offers superior return expectations.
International Investment
Portfolio DETAILS
After
eliminating Colombia, the
Top Value Model Portfolio contains the nine "Buy" rated national markets
of Brazil, the Czech Republic, Korea, the Philippines, Russia, Sri Lanka, Taiwan,
Turkey and Venezuela at equal weights.
South Korea is one of Keppler's
top rated international investment markets this month. More on the KOSPI-Index
Learn more about South Korea
at the Korea Times
According to Keppler's analyses,
these markets offer the highest expectation of risk-adjusted returns.
You can get ideas on shares in
these top value emerging stock markets from Thomas Fischer at FISCHER@jyskebank.dk
For more details on Keppler's
analysis, contact Michael Keppler at 1-212-245-4304.
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