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Global Emerging Stock Market
Value Strategy
By Gary Scott |
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Spotting
Trends expert Michael Keppler continually researches every emerging
global stock market and compares their value based on current book to
price, cash flow to price, earnings to price, average dividend yield,
return on equity and cash flow return. He compares these to each global
emerging stock market history and from this develops his global emerging
stock market value strategy.
Global Emerging Stock Market Value Trend
The Morgan Stanley MSCI Emerging Stock Market Index continued
its string
of positive months and rose .3% in US dollar terms. Over the month,
fifteen global emerging stock markets advanced and twelve fell.
Global Emerging Stock Market Value Highest Appreciation
The global emerging stock market with the highest appreciation was Egypt
(up 42.7%). Sri Lanka (up 20.1%) and Jordan (up 15.8%). Over the last
12 month's the top global emerging stock market was Egypt
rising 222.9.% with Colombia up 127.8% and Czech Republic up 94.2%.
Global Emerging Stock Market Value Lowest Appreciation
The worst performing global emerging stock market for the month was Venezuela
at 13.5%, Poland (-6.4%) and South Africa (-5.5%).
The lowest rising global emerging stock market for the last year was China
(-0.3%), Thailand was up 3.0% and Peru 3.2%.
The top value global emerging stock markets are Brazil, Colombia, Czech
Republic, Korea, Philippines, Russia, Sri Lanka, and Venezuela at
equal weights.
The global emerging market values that have a low rating and are recommended
as sell candidates are Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Jordan,
Mexico, Pakistan and Thailand.
Argentina, Chile, China, Malaysia, Morocco, Peru, Poland, South Africa,
Taiwan and Turkey are each rated as a neutral emerging global stock
market values.
A very interesting point is that Keppler's Top Value Global
Emerging Markets portfolio is up almost 50% during the last year, the
valuation ratios are not much higher than at the end of 2003. This
means that growth in book value, cash flow, earnings and dividends of
these markets has kept pace with rising stock prices.
This suggests that though there has been enormous growth the prices are
not overvalued.
The price to book value, cash flow, earnings and dividend yields in the
emerging markets are better than in major markets as well.
However we should keep seasonality in mind. See GaryScott.com/archives/2004 and GaryScott.com/archives/2003
Studies on seasonality show that most major stock market gains are made
in the months of November through May so the quarter ahead may be strong
and we are nearing a slow down season (if emerging stock markets follow
this trend). That slow down could be a good time to buy.
You can get ideas on shares in these top value emerging global stock markets
from Thomas Fischer at FISCHER@jyskebank.dk
For more details on Keppler's analysis, contact Michael
Keppler at 1-212-245-4304.
Until tomorrow, good investing,
Gary
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