* International Investments – July
2006 Emerging Market Value Analysis
* Natural Health Tip - More Cool DeBuggin
* Ecuador Real Estate and Latin America
Our friend, Michael Keppler, continually
researches many emerging stock markets and compares their
value based on current book to price, cash flow to price,
earnings to price, average dividend yield, return on equity
and cash flow return. He compares each emerging stock market’s
history and from this develops his Good Value Emerging
Stock Market Strategy. His analysis is rational, mathematical
and does not worry about short ups and downs.
Here are Keppler’s current comments on recent developments & outlook
in emerging markets.
“After their first double-digit monthly
decline since September 2002 last month, Emerging Markets
continued their decline during the first half of last month
only to recover during the second half to close the month
at around their end-of-May levels. In June, the MSCI Emerging
Markets Total Return Index lost 0.2 % in US dollars and
rose by the same amount in euros.
“Since the beginning of the year, the
MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up 7.2 % in US dollars,
but due to a 7.8 % decline of the dollar versus the euro,
the Emerging Markets benchmark lost 1.1 % in euros year-to-date.
“Of the three regional indices, Latin
America stood out with a 4.2 % monthly gain, while Asia
lost 0.8 % and Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) declined
2.3 %.Year-to-date, Latin America leads with a 12 % gain,
followed by Asia (+7.3 %) and EMEA (+3.4 %). All performance
numbers are in US dollars unless mentioned otherwise.
“Eleven markets included in the MSCI
Emerging Markets universe rose last month, fourteen markets
declined and two markets were unchanged.
“The best performing markets of the
month were Peru (+9.7 %), Argentina (+7.1 %) and the Czech
Republic (+5 %).
Jordan (-13.9 %), Colombia (-13 %) and Egypt (-9.9 %)
lost most.
“Compared to their levels at the beginning
of the year, twenty-one markets were higher and six markets
were lower.
“The biggest winners this year have
been Venezuela (+51.3 %), Morocco (+43.9 %), and Argentina
(+34.2 %).
Turkey (-24.9 %), Jordan (-23.5 %) and Egypt (-20.4 %)
performed worst so far this year.
“There are two changes in our performance ratings
this month: Peru is downgraded to “Sell” from “Neutral” and
Russia is downgraded to “Neutral” from “Buy”.
Russia has been a constituent of the Top Value Model Portfolio
since the end of January 2003. Since then to the end of
June 2006, the MSCI Russia Index went from 170 to 758,
an increase of 54.9 % compounded annually. Thus Russia
beat the MSCI Emerging Market Index, which rose by 35.5
% p.a. during the same time, by 19.4 percentage points
annually.
“After eliminating Russia,
the Top Value Model Portfolio contains the eight national
MSCI markets of Brazil, China , Korea, Malaysia, the
Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Turkey at equal weights.
According to our performance ratings, these markets offer
the highest expectation of risk-adjusted returns.”
You can get ideas on shares in these top value emerging
stock markets from Thomas Fischer at Fischer@jyskebank.dk
For more details on Keppler's analysis, contact Roderick
Cameron at 1-212-245-4304 or email roderick.cameron@kamny.com
Join Merri, Thomas Fischer of Jyske Bank and me at our
next International Business and Investing Made EZ course
in North Carolina. Review where to invest and do business
now and learn which markets and currencies may be strong
in the year ahead. Meet Steve Marchant our man in Ecuador
and learn about products to export. Go to http://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ibeznc.html
Double your profit potential with the MultiCurrency Sandwich.
Leverage investments in top value markets. See http://www.garyascott.com/catalog/bldh.html
Until next message, good investing!
Gary
There is plenty of energy in emerging markets. These two
ladies walking in Cotacachi exude it!
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