By
Gary Scott
Spotting
Trends expert Michael Keppler continually researches every
emerging stock market value and compares their value based
on current book to price, cash flow to price, earnings to
price, average dividend yield, return on equity and cash
flow return. He compares these to each global emerging stock
market history and from this develops his global emerging
stock market value strategy.
Emerging Markets International
Investing Values Trend
The
Morgan Stanley MSCI Emerging Stock Market Index continued
its string of positive months
and rose .3% in US dollar terms. Over
the month, fifteen global emerging stock markets advanced
and twelve fell.
Emerging Markets International
Investing Values Highest Appreciation
The
global emerging stock market with the highest appreciation
was Egypt (up 42.7%).
Sri Lanka (up 20.1%) and Jordan (up 15.8%). Over the
last 12 month's the top global emerging stock market was
Egypt rising 222.9.%
with Colombia up 127.8% and Czech Republic up 94.2%.
Emerging Markets International
Investing Values Lowest Appreciation
The
worst performing global emerging stock market for the month
was Venezuela at 13.5%,
Poland (-6.4%) and South Africa (-5.5%).
The
lowest rising global emerging stock market for the last
year was China (-0.3%), Thailand
was up 3.0% and Peru 3.2%.
The top value global emerging stock markets are Brazil
, Colombia, Czech Republic, Korea, Philippines, Russia, Sri Lanka, and Venezuela at equal weights.
The Emerging Markets International
Investing Values that have a low rating and are recommended
as sell candidates are Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Jordan, Mexico, Pakistan and Thailand.
Argentina, Chile, China, Malaysia, Morocco, Peru,
Poland, South Africa, Taiwan and Turkey are each rated
as a neutral emerging global stock market values.
A
very interesting point is that Keppler's Top Value
Portfolio is up almost 50% during the last year, the valuation
ratios are not much higher than at the end of 2003. This
means that growth in book value, cash flow, earnings and
dividends of these markets has kept pace with rising stock
prices.
This
suggests that though there has been enormous growth the
prices are not overvalued.
The price to book value, cash flow, earnings and dividend
yields in the emerging markets are better than in major markets
as well.
However
we should keep seasonality in mind. See GaryScott.com/archives/2004 and GaryScott.com/archives/2003
Studies
on seasonality show that most major stock market gains
are made in the months
of November through May so the quarter ahead may be strong
and we are nearing a slow down season (if emerging stock
markets follow this trend). That
slow down could be a good time to buy.
You can get more ideas on emerging markets at
http://ideas.repec.org/p/sce/scecf4/124.html
and http://www2.ifc.org/EMDB/EMDBHOME.HTM
The Mumbai Stock exchange
is one of many emerging stock markets. Details at Mumbainet.com/business/bse.htm
You can get ideas on shares in these top value emerging
global stock markets from Thomas Fischer at FISCHER@jyskebank.dk
Learn
more about Jyske Bank at www.jbpb.com
Jyske Bank is the second largest independent bank in Denmark
For
more details on Keppler's
analysis, contact Michael Keppler at 1-212-245-4304.
Until next month, good investing,
Gary Scott
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