* International Investments – Warming
Isn’t Cool
* Natural Health Tip – Cool Travel Health Tip
* Ecuador Real Estate – Cool Shifts
Inflation is real and can affect us in many ways. Inflation
is often hidden in reality and escapes economic numbers as
well.
For example if in the 90s if one looked at inflation figures
for Miami housing, the numbers did not look too bad. Then Hurricane
Andrew ripped through the city and all the houses built after
the 70s (wide spread introduction of shingle staple gun) lost
their roofs. Earlier built houses did not. House prices between
1970 and 1990 may not have risen that much. But the later built
houses (that did something-cost more) were cheaper.
Recent messages looked at economic problems created by high
health costs. Not only are costs rising, services are going
down! Here is a note from a long term reader that shows this
affect.
“Gary, I am employed in medical research.
About 4 weeks ago I was informed that my position was being
eliminated because of the loss of funding of the main NIH grant
that my position was paid.
‘Frankly, the downturn in this country
as a result of the George Bush debacle has gotten us both in
the frame of mind of thinking about emigrating and Ecuador
sounds like a good place to go. So, can you point me to someone
who might know about the possibilities for medical or medical
research jobs in Ecuador? Any ideas or referrals you may have
would be greatly appreciated.”
Another reader wrote: “Dear Gary, With reference to
your message...I have a similar problem with health insurance.
Our present plan is to retire in Ecuador. I will be 66 and
she will be 60. Do you know of any way to cover my wife against
catastrophic med expenses between her ages 60 and 65...without "breaking
the bank"? Sincerely”
I regret that I do not have an answer for those living in
the USA.
With inflation expect to pay more for health services. Expect
to get less. To understand this dilemma even just a bit read
the novel Toxin by Robin Cook. Though fiction, Robin presents
medical issues that are real!
Expect to pay more for health insurance. Expect to get less!
This applies to all insurance because we have one more insurance
problem that goes well beyond inflation.
The first part of this problem is demographic.
One of the largest migrations in mankind’s
history has taken place over the past two decades and has transformed
the Atlantic and Gulf coast of the USA. Now one in 7 Americans
live on the East and Gulf coasts. Beach economies have been
growing faster than anywhere else.
This concentration of humanity has flocked to the coastline
from rock-strewn coasts in Maine all the way around to sandy
barrier islands hugging Texas.
New retirees and baby boomers are settling on the coast full-time
or buying vacation homes for later retirement later.
A USA TODAY analysis found that an estimated 41 million people
now live in a county that abuts the eastern or southern seaboard.
There are also several million inland residents with second
homes near the coast. Since 1993, 100 coastal counties have
grown nearly 50% faster than the rate for the entire USA. About
1,000 new year- round residents arrive each day.
To a large extent, this migration is being fed by the booming
metropolitan centers along the East Coast: Boston, New York,
Baltimore-Washington, Charlotte, N.C., and Atlanta. Many urban
residents start out buying or renting a weekend home along
the coast and eventually move permanently. This is important
as you will see in a moment!
This growth should continue with the aging
of the USA's 78 million baby boomers. Millions of boomers should
have the financial resources to move to the beach but this
creates and coincides with a second problem……global
warming.
Our son just sent us a note about a press release by Lloyd's
of London Insurance Syndicate.
The release says that Lloyd's warns insurers to face the challenges
of climate change.
It states that the insurance industry must face up to the
growing threat of climate change or risk being swept away.
Lloyd’s has published a report “Climate Change,
Adapt or Bust” that warns insurers to act now to understand
and actively manage risks from emerging threats such as greenhouse
gases and rising sea levels. The report says recent scientific
evidence suggests climate changes are taking place faster than
imagined and insurance change is long overdue. Here is a quote:
“Recent natural disasters have revealed
the inadequacy of capital and pricing models, so catastrophe
models must be updated regularly to keep pace with the latest
scientific evidence; the industry must take a new approach
to underwriting, looking ahead and factoring in climate change
scenarios, rather than simply basing decisions on historical
records - especially with extreme windstorm seasons set to
continue; insurers must prepare for the impact of climate change
on asset values.
“Underwriting for profit will be crucial;
insurers must regularly review and communicate conditions of
coverage in light of the impact of climate change; and effective
partnership with business and government will be key to mitigating
risk.”
Learn more about this demographic twist at
garyascott.com archives
In short this means plan to pay more or rely less on insurance
issued from insurance firms in the USA.
Have you had any insurance cancelled or raised a lot recently?
If so let me know. I am not selling insurance. I just want
to share what is happening with insurance around the world.
The ultimate insurance we can have is strong bodies, good
health, clear minds and a diversified global business and portfolio.
Plus the willingness to adjust as times and circumstances shift.
Every black has a silver lining. In this instance we want
to look for the insurance businesses that will emerge from
the change. Calculate where people will shift as they move
away from hurricane zones.
This is why Merri’s and my businesses and investments
are spread around the world. This is also why we live far from
the maddening crowds…and far from the beach. This is
in part why Ashe county is booming and Ecuador as well.
We can never know for sure what the future will bring, but
what we can know is that if we have a global view, the sun
will shine somewhere for us.
Until next message, we hope it shines for you as well.
Gary
P.S. Join us in Ashe County. Learn more about
investing in overseas markets. Join Merri, Thomas Fischer from
Jyske Bank Copenhagen and Steve Marchant from Ecuador and me
at our September 15-16-17, 2006 International Business and
Investing Made EZ course in North Carolina. Our free accommodations
here on the farm are reserved on a first come first served
basis so do not delay! Details at garyascott.com
Here’s our horses on the Farm. We love Ashe County…no
hurricanes, no earthquakes, no volcanoes. Ashe county is cool
but…. in the winter too cool. You can see why we also
love sunny Ecuador!
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