Jyske Bank, Keppler Asset Management and
The Economist are three of my favorite sources of data partly
because, like chalk and cheese, they have very different
styles.
Last message, based on Jyske’s input,
we saw that emerging markets are under pressure as current
accounts come into focus. Currencies in countries with large
current account deficits (such as the US) are weak. The emerging
currencies that have depreciated most in 2006 are those of
countries struggling with current-account deficits. According
to Jyske Bank, the emerging countries with the best ability
to create current account surpluses offer better opportunity
now. The best countries based on current account possibilities
according to Jyske are listed:
Singapore
Russia
The Philippines
Taiwan
Argentina
Brazil
South Korea
Chile
Ukraine
Indonesia
Commodity Rich Emerging Markets
One way I zero in on places to invest is
by looking for areas where my sources agree. So I tried a
cross check on Keppler Asset Management. Note this. The top
ten investments in the State Street Global Advantage Emerging
Markets Fund (which follows Keppler’s system) are all
on Jyske’s list as well:
| Investment |
Country |
| Lukoil |
Russia |
| Petróleo Brasileiro |
Brazil |
| Anglo American plc |
Commodity Rich |
| Samsung Electronics Co. |
South Korea |
| Philippine Long Distance Telephone |
The Philipines |
| Gold Fields Ltd. |
Commodity Rich |
| AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. |
Commodity Rich |
| PTT Public Company Ltd. |
Commodity Rich (Thailand Gas) |
| iShares (Taiwan) Inc. |
Taiwan |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manuf. Co. Ltd. |
Taiwan |
Look at the top investments in the fund
by country weighting. Again this fund is focused in exactly
the countries mentioned by Jyske. Over half the funds invested
are in these countries!
| Country |
Percent of the Fund Invested |
| Korea |
12.9% |
| Russia |
12.4% |
| Philippines |
11.5% |
| Brazil |
11.3% |
| Malaysia |
9.0% |
| Taiwan |
8.6% |
The State Street Global Advantage Fund
invests primarily in emerging equities based on valuations
by Keppler Asset Management. The fund’s goal is to
outperform the Morgan Stanley Capital Index Emerging Markets
Total Return Index over holding periods of 3 to 5 years,
with below-average risk.
The Fund buys into a combination of undervalued
markets (based on Keppler valuations) and aims to hold them
till they become slightly overvalued.
Risk is controlled by focusing on expectation
of loss and by investing in undervalued securities with a
below-average probability of losing money in the long run.
There you have it. Two of my advisors with
very different approaches. But their recommendations end
up being very much the same. Take note!
You can get details about Keppler’s
valuation system at info@kamny.com
US investors cannot invest in the Luxembourg
registered State Street Global Advantage Emerging Markets
Fund but they can get details on how to invest globally including
in the shares and countries above from Thomas Fischer at
Jyske Bank. His address is fischer@jyskebank.dk
Until next message, good natural health,
global business and international investing to you!
Gary
Learn about investing in emerging
and major currencies, gold, silver, Ecuador, import-export,
overseas markets and more. Join Merri, Thomas Fischer
(Copenhagen) and Steve Marchant (Ecuador) and me at our
September 15-16-17, 2006 International Business and Investing
Made EZ course in North Carolina. Review where to invest
and do business now and learn which markets and currencies
may be strong in the year ahead. Learn more about Ecuador
import and export from Steve. Our May course was overbooked
and the September session is filling up fast. Our free
accommodations are reserved on a first come first served
basis so do not delay! Go to http://www.garyascott.com/catalog/ibeznc.
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